Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.345833 2.492844 2.648665 2.826868 3.025960 3.242642 3.497806
2025-06-08 2.132738 2.333783 2.557856 2.828724 3.150941 3.526826 4.005985
2025-06-15 2.012898 2.247338 2.517953 2.858488 3.283221 3.806644 4.519591
2025-06-22 1.886185 2.135595 2.430712 2.813063 3.307152 3.942526 4.855783
2025-06-29 1.780734 2.038672 2.349979 2.762996 3.312724 4.045969 5.151687
2025-07-06 1.684755 1.945780 2.265819 2.698672 3.289047 4.101270 5.378620
2025-07-13 1.644626 1.918886 2.261419 2.735418 3.401350 4.353490 5.934114
2025-07-20 1.613721 1.900926 2.265949 2.782318 3.529214 4.639496 6.590617
2025-07-27 1.586684 1.885751 2.272113 2.830231 3.660647 4.943953 7.336723
2025-08-03 1.538231 1.839746 2.233852 2.811863 3.689998 5.087474 7.817179
2025-08-10 1.493174 1.796016 2.196061 2.790966 3.712382 5.219976 8.301605
2025-08-17 1.450072 1.752974 2.156878 2.765058 3.723762 5.333315 8.769848
2025-08-24 1.408387 1.710919 2.118049 2.738649 3.734234 5.449980 9.284246
2025-08-31 1.378454 1.683731 2.098810 2.740392 3.790588 5.656799 10.065156
2025-09-07 1.358781 1.669709 2.097317 2.768619 3.892885 5.963151 11.193931
2025-09-14 1.319262 1.626578 2.051917 2.725534 3.868502 6.017303 11.672101
2025-09-21 1.280811 1.583726 2.005285 2.678019 3.832624 6.043666 12.082719
2025-09-28 1.240587 1.537231 1.951732 2.616930 3.768349 6.004035 12.287616
2025-10-05 1.229409 1.531456 1.957811 2.651834 3.879562 6.350916 13.855225
2025-10-12 1.221374 1.529746 1.969617 2.696360 4.011996 6.766388 15.912080
2025-10-19 1.213859 1.528416 1.981744 2.741821 4.150142 7.220884 18.476623
2025-10-26 1.190843 1.503837 1.957489 2.724396 4.164202 7.378405 19.896529
2025-11-02 1.168322 1.479368 1.932569 2.704567 4.171850 7.521378 21.373729